Diwali, Navratris –God gifts for keeping recession, slowdown at bay

Economists may  prescribe all kinds of theories to deal with slowdown and recession. India has a simple solution, God gifted - to tackle the issues of recession or slowdown. As long as we celebrate Diwali, Dussehra and Durga Puja, demand squeeze can be taken care of.  A string of festivals, beginning with Navratris (nine days of worship, festivities devoted to Hindu Godess Durga) , followed , Dussehra, Karva Chauth(Husband’s Day), Diwali , Gur Purab (birth anniversary of Hindu-Sikh Guru Nanak Dev are on the way.  This would  go on till November end.

Come December, tone and tenor changes and Indians led by our Christian bros and sisters start talking and behaving like westerners and celebrations start for the Christmas and the New Year. In the last few months, we had just celebrated Eids .

Thousands of crores of rupees, billions of dollars are at stake. We Indians splurge and keep trade and industry afloat. With conclusion of Pitripaksha ( a fortnight of forebearance in the memory of ancestors) on October 12 and beginning of Navratris , October 13, the car makers, white goods firms , mobile phone vendors, property developers would launch their mega blitz .  E-commerce giant Flipkart, despite technical glitches, has been launching Big Billion Day for the last two years and raking in some hundreds , if not thousands of crores of rupees (these firms are not listed on the market, so there is no way of finding their actual sale turnover). Amazon and Snapdeal are also getting into big billion game.

Car makers , led by Maruti Suzuki and some other European and US firms would soon be seen offering discounts , trying to push their sale. For them, these three months –October, November, December are the biggest opportunities and they push for them.

Then, there are crores and billions of dollars spent and generated on small and tiny items of festivities –Diyas (earthern lamps lit on edible oil or ghee), clothing, home decors, furniture and what have you. Of course, even the big brands are now trying to milk this huge market. The festival sale could be easily estimated at Rs 100,000 -120,000 crore (USD 18-20 billion). Then they have a multiplier impact, which economists can explain, but common sense suggests these USD 20 billion can generate another USD 80 to USD 100 billion.   

Every year , like a ritual of sorts, one gets to hear this refrain –“sale is not as brisk as last year” . This is particularly heard about fire works and crackers. But then, the demand pushes the consumption which leads to production (in anticipation ) and we would have dealt with any impending recession or slowdown, if there was one. India is not Japan where recession can last for several years . It can happen in those countries because they do not have Navratris, Durga Puja or Diwali.

These are the sparks which sparkle the Indian economy of USD two trillion.   

Pic:Courtesy Gujarat Tourism